Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK vs Assyriska IF — Division 2 - Södra Svealand 2019

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK
FT
2 – 0
Assyriska IF
Assyriska IF
6/27/2020Division 2 - Södra SvealandDivision 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 2Häradsvallen A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK51%
×Draw21%
Assyriska IF27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK
2.05
Assyriska IF
1.46

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK creates 40% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 19 away

creates per match

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK
1.85
Assyriska IF
1.05

allows per match

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK
1.88
Assyriska IF
2.26

finishing

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK+0.00on par
Assyriska IF+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK ↓

Assyriska IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK or draw
73%
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK or Assyriska IF
79%
Draw or Assyriska IF
49%

Winning margin

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK wins by 2+
30%
Assyriska IF wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 1+ goals
87%
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 2+ goals
61%
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 3+ goals
33%
Assyriska IF 1+ goals
77%
Assyriska IF 2+ goals
43%
Assyriska IF 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK (draw refunded)
65%
Assyriska IF (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.88 · 33 matches

Assyriska IF away — creates 1.05, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK attack 1.85 + Assyriska IF defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 2.05

Assyriska IF attack 1.05 + Trosa-Vagnhärad SK defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK scores more
51%
level
21%
Assyriska IF scores more
27%

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Trosa-Vagnhärad SK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Södra Svealand: Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 2–0 Assyriska IF

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK beat Assyriska IF 2-0 in Division 2 - Södra Svealand on June 27, 2020.

The match was played at Häradsvallen A in Vagnhärad.