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Trosa-Vagnhärad SK vs Assyriska FF — Division 2 - Södra Svealand 2019

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK
FT
1 – 2
Assyriska FF
Assyriska FF
9/19/2020Division 2 - Södra SvealandDivision 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 9Häradsvallen A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK30%
×Draw22%
Assyriska FF49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK
1.52
Assyriska FF
2.00

Assyriska FF creates 32% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 45 away

creates per match

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK
1.85
Assyriska FF
2.13

allows per match

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK
1.88
Assyriska FF
1.18

finishing

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK+0.00on par
Assyriska FF+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK ↓

Assyriska FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK or draw
51%
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK or Assyriska FF
78%
Draw or Assyriska FF
70%

Winning margin

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK wins by 2+
14%
Assyriska FF wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 1+ goals
78%
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 2+ goals
45%
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 3+ goals
20%
Assyriska FF 1+ goals
86%
Assyriska FF 2+ goals
59%
Assyriska FF 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK (draw refunded)
38%
Assyriska FF (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.88 · 33 matches

Assyriska FF away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.18 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK attack 1.85 + Assyriska FF defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.52

Assyriska FF attack 2.13 + Trosa-Vagnhärad SK defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK scores more
30%
level
22%
Assyriska FF scores more
49%

Assyriska FF at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Assyriska FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Trosa-Vagnhärad SK vs Assyriska FF

Assyriska FF beat Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 2-1 in Division 2 - Södra Svealand on September 19, 2020.

The match was played at Häradsvallen A in Vagnhärad.