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Tropezón vs Colindres — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Tropezón
Tropezón
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Colindres
Colindres
3/1/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 24Campo Municipal Santa Ana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Tropezón59%
×Draw23%
Colindres18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tropezón
1.76
Colindres
0.85

Tropezón creates 107% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 66 away

creates per match

Tropezón
1.73
Colindres
0.92

allows per match

Tropezón
0.78
Colindres
1.79

finishing

Tropezón+0.00on par
Colindres+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tropezón ↓

Colindres →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Tropezón or draw
82%
Tropezón or Colindres
77%
Draw or Colindres
41%

Winning margin

Tropezón wins by 2+
33%
Colindres wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Tropezón 1+ goals
83%
Tropezón 2+ goals
52%
Tropezón 3+ goals
26%
Colindres 1+ goals
57%
Colindres 2+ goals
21%
Colindres 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Tropezón (draw refunded)
77%
Colindres (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tropezón at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.78 · 95 matches

Colindres away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.79 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tropezón attack 1.73 + Colindres defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.76

Colindres attack 0.92 + Tropezón defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Tropezón scores more
59%
level
23%
Colindres scores more
18%

Tropezón at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Tropezón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Tropezón 1–1 Colindres

Tropezón and Colindres drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on March 1, 2026.

The match was played at Campo Municipal Santa Ana in Torrelavega.