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Tropezón vs Cayón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Tropezón
Tropezón
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Cayón
Cayón
1/19/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 21Campo Municipal Santa Ana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Tropezón44%
×Draw26%
Cayón30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tropezón
1.41
Cayón
1.12

Tropezón creates 26% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 13 away

creates per match

Tropezón
1.73
Cayón
1.46

allows per match

Tropezón
0.78
Cayón
1.08

finishing

Tropezón+0.00on par
Cayón+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tropezón ↓

Cayón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tropezón or draw
70%
Tropezón or Cayón
74%
Draw or Cayón
56%

Winning margin

Tropezón wins by 2+
21%
Cayón wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Tropezón 1+ goals
76%
Tropezón 2+ goals
41%
Tropezón 3+ goals
17%
Cayón 1+ goals
67%
Cayón 2+ goals
31%
Cayón 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tropezón (draw refunded)
59%
Cayón (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tropezón at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.78 · 95 matches

Cayón away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tropezón attack 1.73 + Cayón defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.41

Cayón attack 1.46 + Tropezón defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Tropezón scores more
44%
level
26%
Cayón scores more
30%

Tropezón at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Tropezón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Tropezón 3–1 Cayón

Tropezón beat Cayón 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on January 19, 2020.

The match was played at Campo Municipal Santa Ana in Torrelavega.