Tromso 1–0 Øygarden: Result & Stats | 1. Division

Tromso

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Øygarden

7/27/2020

1. Division · Round 5Alfheim Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Tromso70%

×Draw17%

Øygarden14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TromsoExpected goals in this matchØygarden

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.63

1.10

Tromso

2.63

Øygarden

1.10

Tromso creates 139% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

2.20

creates per match

1.33

0.87

allows per match

3.07

creates per match

Tromso

2.20

Øygarden

1.33

allows per match

Tromso

0.87

Øygarden

3.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tromso+0.00on par

Øygarden+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tromso ↓

Øygarden →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Tromso or draw

86%

Tromso or Øygarden

83%

Draw or Øygarden

30%

Winning margin

Tromso wins by 2+

48%

Øygarden wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Tromso 1+ goals

93%

Tromso 2+ goals

73%

Tromso 3+ goals

48%

Øygarden 1+ goals

67%

Øygarden 2+ goals

30%

Øygarden 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Tromso (draw refunded)

83%

Øygarden (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tromso at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Øygarden away — creates 1.33, concedes 3.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tromso attack 2.20 + Øygarden defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 2.63

Øygarden attack 1.33 + Tromso defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Tromso scores more

70%

level

17%

Øygarden scores more

14%

Tromso at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Tromso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff