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Tromso vs Stromsgodset — Eliteserien 2026

Tromso
Tromso
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Stromsgodset
Stromsgodset
11/23/2024EliteserienEliteserien · Round 29Romssa Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Tromso52%
×Draw23%
Stromsgodset25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tromso
1.78
Stromsgodset
1.15

Tromso creates 55% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 112 away

creates per match

Tromso
1.65
Stromsgodset
1.07

allows per match

Tromso
1.23
Stromsgodset
1.91

finishing

Tromso+0.00on par
Stromsgodset+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tromso ↓

Stromsgodset →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Tromso or draw
75%
Tromso or Stromsgodset
77%
Draw or Stromsgodset
48%

Winning margin

Tromso wins by 2+
29%
Stromsgodset wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Tromso 1+ goals
83%
Tromso 2+ goals
53%
Tromso 3+ goals
26%
Stromsgodset 1+ goals
68%
Stromsgodset 2+ goals
32%
Stromsgodset 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tromso (draw refunded)
68%
Stromsgodset (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tromso at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.23 · 105 matches

Stromsgodset away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.91 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tromso attack 1.65 + Stromsgodset defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.78

Stromsgodset attack 1.07 + Tromso defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Tromso scores more
52%
level
23%
Stromsgodset scores more
25%

Tromso at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Tromso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tromso vs Stromsgodset

Tromso beat Stromsgodset 2-0 in Eliteserien on November 23, 2024.

The match was played at Romssa Arena in Tromsø.