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Tromso vs ODD Ballklubb — Eliteserien 2026

Tromso
Tromso
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
ODD Ballklubb
ODD Ballklubb
10/15/2022EliteserienEliteserien · Round 26Alfheim Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Tromso50%
×Draw24%
ODD Ballklubb26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tromso
1.69
ODD Ballklubb
1.15

Tromso creates 47% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 98 away

creates per match

Tromso
1.65
ODD Ballklubb
1.07

allows per match

Tromso
1.23
ODD Ballklubb
1.73

finishing

Tromso+0.00on par
ODD Ballklubb+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tromso ↓

ODD Ballklubb →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Tromso or draw
74%
Tromso or ODD Ballklubb
76%
Draw or ODD Ballklubb
50%

Winning margin

Tromso wins by 2+
27%
ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Tromso 1+ goals
82%
Tromso 2+ goals
50%
Tromso 3+ goals
24%
ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals
68%
ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals
32%
ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tromso (draw refunded)
66%
ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tromso at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.23 · 105 matches

ODD Ballklubb away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.73 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tromso attack 1.65 + ODD Ballklubb defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.69

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.07 + Tromso defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Tromso scores more
50%
level
24%
ODD Ballklubb scores more
26%

Tromso at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Tromso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eliteserien: Tromso 3–2 ODD Ballklubb

Tromso beat ODD Ballklubb 3-2 in Eliteserien on October 15, 2022.

The match was played at Alfheim Stadion in Tromsø.