Tromso 4–0 Fredrikstad: Result & Stats

Tromso

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Fredrikstad

J. Hjerto-Dahl 86', 72', 64'

H. Larsen 3'

3/15/2026

Eliteserien · Round 1Romssa Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Tromso50%

×Draw24%

Fredrikstad26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TromsoExpected goals in this matchFredrikstad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.15

Tromso

1.68

Fredrikstad

1.15

Tromso creates 46% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 34 away

1.70

creates per match

1.11

1.18

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Tromso

1.70

Fredrikstad

1.11

allows per match

Tromso

1.18

Fredrikstad

1.66

+0.02on par

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Tromso+0.02on par

Fredrikstad-0.05on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tromso ↓

Fredrikstad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Tromso or draw

74%

Tromso or Fredrikstad

76%

Draw or Fredrikstad

50%

Winning margin

Tromso wins by 2+

27%

Fredrikstad wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Tromso 1+ goals

81%

Tromso 2+ goals

50%

Tromso 3+ goals

24%

Fredrikstad 1+ goals

68%

Fredrikstad 2+ goals

32%

Fredrikstad 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Tromso (draw refunded)

66%

Fredrikstad (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tromso at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.18 · 29 matches

Fredrikstad away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.66 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tromso attack 1.70 + Fredrikstad defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.68

Fredrikstad attack 1.11 + Tromso defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Tromso scores more

50%

level

24%

Fredrikstad scores more

26%

Tromso at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Tromso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

R. Jenssen

Tromso · M

9.5

Match Events

3'

H. Larsen

21'

Ulrik Fredriksen

57'

J. Nunez← S. Laghzaoui

57'

L. Owusu← O. Ohlenschlaeger

64'

J. Hjerto-Dahl↳ D. Edvardsson

69'

D. Braut← H. Larsen

69'

T. Nyhammer← L. O. Larsen

72'

E. Granaas← U. Fredriksen

72'

J. Hjerto-Dahl↳ R. Jenssen

79'

M. Nilsson← R. R. Shein

80'

A. Andresen← S. Sorlokk

82'

S. Innvaer← A. Thongla-Iad Warneryd

86'

J. Hjerto-Dahl↳ R. Jenssen

87'

M. Mikkelsen← L. Cornic

87'

J. Nois← D. Edvardsson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TromsoFredrikstad

Overview

43%Possession57%

16Total Shots6

3.31Expected Goals (xG)0.42

6Corners2

12Fouls4

Shots

16Total Shots6

9On Target1

4Off Target2

3Blocked3

12Inside Box4

4Outside Box2

Passing

43%Possession57%

461Total Passes616

409Accurate Passes562

89%Pass Accuracy91%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

-0.65Goals Prevented-0.65

Discipline

12Fouls4

0Yellow Cards1