Tromsdalen Uil 3–2 Strindheim: Result & Stats

Tromsdalen Uil

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Strindheim

B. Dyrkoren 74'

S. Pedersen 70'

A. Sandbukt 30'

A. Gløsen 78', 3'

8/3/2024

2. Division - Group 2 · Group 2 - 15TUIL Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Tromsdalen Uil66%

×Draw17%

Strindheim16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tromsdalen UilExpected goals in this matchStrindheim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.59

1.23

Tromsdalen Uil

2.59

Strindheim

1.23

Tromsdalen Uil creates 111% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 26 away

2.38

creates per match

1.35

1.10

allows per match

2.81

creates per match

Tromsdalen Uil

2.38

Strindheim

1.35

allows per match

Tromsdalen Uil

1.10

Strindheim

2.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tromsdalen Uil+0.00on par

Strindheim+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tromsdalen Uil ↓

Strindheim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Tromsdalen Uil or draw

84%

Tromsdalen Uil or Strindheim

83%

Draw or Strindheim

34%

Winning margin

Tromsdalen Uil wins by 2+

45%

Strindheim wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Tromsdalen Uil 1+ goals

92%

Tromsdalen Uil 2+ goals

73%

Tromsdalen Uil 3+ goals

47%

Strindheim 1+ goals

71%

Strindheim 2+ goals

35%

Strindheim 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Tromsdalen Uil (draw refunded)

80%

Strindheim (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tromsdalen Uil at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.10 · 58 matches

Strindheim away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.81 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tromsdalen Uil attack 2.38 + Strindheim defence 2.81 → ÷2 → 2.59

Strindheim attack 1.35 + Tromsdalen Uil defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Tromsdalen Uil scores more

66%

level

17%

Strindheim scores more

16%

Tromsdalen Uil at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Tromsdalen Uil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

30'

45'

46'

61'

S. Pedersen← A. Sandbukt

61'

U. Celius← P. Johansen

69'

B. Dyrkoren← D. Hafstad

70'

S. Pedersen

71'

M. Hammerås← P. Johansen

74'

B. Dyrkoren

75'

U. R. Celius

78'

A. Gløsen

90'

K. Kamsvag

90'

I. Selnes← T. Hafstad

90'

O. Jacobsen← M. Larsen

Tromsdalen

Strindheim

41

Bugge

15

▼

22

25

2

8

9

6

⚽2

Gløsen

10

Kosberg

11

▼

18

1

6

24

15

8

23

▼

Larsen

17

⚽

▼

Sandbukt

32

▼

Johansen

22

Eliassen

5

▼

Hafstad

9

▼

Hafstad

Manager: A. Samuelsen

61'▲S. Pedersen←▼A. Sandbukt

61'▲U. Celius←▼P. Johansen

69'▲B. Dyrkoren←▼D. Hafstad

90'▲I. Selnes←▼T. Hafstad

90'▲O. Jacobsen←▼M. Larsen

Tromsdalen Uil substitutes

14Pedersen27Celius28Dyrkoren20Selnes3Jacobsen7Swaleh31Kristoffersen40Tollefsen

Manager: P. Rinnan

46'▲T. Nyheim←▼N. Solem

71'▲M. Hammerås←▼P. Johansen

Strindheim substitutes

16Nyheim66Hammerås19Solem20Angellsen21Aasbø39Kizilirmak

Match Recap: Tromsdalen Uil vs Strindheim

Tromsdalen Uil beat Strindheim 3-2 in 2. Division - Group 2 on August 3, 2024.

Goals: A. Gløsen (3', 78'), A. Sandbukt (30'), S. Pedersen (70'), B. Dyrkoren (74').

The match was played at TUIL Arena in Tromsø.

Tromsdalen Uil vs Strindheim — 2. Division - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Tromsdalen Uil vs Strindheim