Tromsdalen Uil 2–0 Skeid: Result & Stats

Tromsdalen Uil

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Skeid

E. Ness 79'

M. Badsvik 38'

5/31/2026

2. Division - Group 2 · Round 9TUIL arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Tromsdalen Uil46%

×Draw24%

Skeid30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tromsdalen UilExpected goals in this matchSkeid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.29

Tromsdalen Uil

1.66

Skeid

1.29

Tromsdalen Uil creates 29% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 32 away

2.38

creates per match

1.47

1.10

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Tromsdalen Uil

2.38

Skeid

1.47

allows per match

Tromsdalen Uil

1.10

Skeid

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tromsdalen Uil+0.00on par

Skeid+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tromsdalen Uil ↓

Skeid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Tromsdalen Uil or draw

70%

Tromsdalen Uil or Skeid

76%

Draw or Skeid

54%

Winning margin

Tromsdalen Uil wins by 2+

24%

Skeid wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Tromsdalen Uil 1+ goals

81%

Tromsdalen Uil 2+ goals

49%

Tromsdalen Uil 3+ goals

23%

Skeid 1+ goals

72%

Skeid 2+ goals

37%

Skeid 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Tromsdalen Uil (draw refunded)

61%

Skeid (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tromsdalen Uil at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.10 · 58 matches

Skeid away — creates 1.47, concedes 0.94 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tromsdalen Uil attack 2.38 + Skeid defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.66

Skeid attack 1.47 + Tromsdalen Uil defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Tromsdalen Uil scores more

46%

level

24%

Skeid scores more

30%

Tromsdalen Uil at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tromsdalen Uil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

M. Badsvik

79'

E. Ness

Tromsdalen

Skeid

1

4

6

19

22

8

10

15

16

18

77

92

4

5

14

17

22

32

10

⚽

Ness

11

⚽

Badsvik

13

Rekdal

16

Hafstad

Manager: Alexander Samuelsen

Tromsdalen Uil substitutes

12Kristiansen6Elvebu7Swaleh8Skogvoll9Halvorsen18Jacobsen19Adolfsen20Selnes28Svendsen

Manager: Vilde Rislaa

Skeid substitutes

24Solberg7Fiksdal17Kvernstuen21Getz25Berre27Jakobsen99Bakkane