Tromsdalen Uil 1–2 Senja: Result & Stats

Tromsdalen Uil

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Senja

7/18/2020

2. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2TUIL Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Tromsdalen Uil81%

×Draw13%

Senja7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tromsdalen UilExpected goals in this matchSenja

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.81

0.69

Tromsdalen Uil

2.81

Senja

0.69

Tromsdalen Uil creates 307% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 21 away

2.52

creates per match

0.57

0.81

allows per match

3.10

creates per match

Tromsdalen Uil

2.52

Senja

0.57

allows per match

Tromsdalen Uil

0.81

Senja

3.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tromsdalen Uil+0.00on par

Senja+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tromsdalen Uil ↓

Senja →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–16%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–16%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Tromsdalen Uil or draw

93%

Tromsdalen Uil or Senja

87%

Draw or Senja

19%

Winning margin

Tromsdalen Uil wins by 2+

60%

Senja wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Tromsdalen Uil 1+ goals

94%

Tromsdalen Uil 2+ goals

76%

Tromsdalen Uil 3+ goals

52%

Senja 1+ goals

50%

Senja 2+ goals

15%

Senja 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Tromsdalen Uil (draw refunded)

92%

Senja (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tromsdalen Uil at home — creates 2.52, concedes 0.81 · 21 matches

Senja away — creates 0.57, concedes 3.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tromsdalen Uil attack 2.52 + Senja defence 3.10 → ÷2 → 2.81

Senja attack 0.57 + Tromsdalen Uil defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Tromsdalen Uil scores more

81%

level

13%

Senja scores more

7%

Tromsdalen Uil at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Tromsdalen Uil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff