Tromsdalen Uil 1–4 Sandnes ULF: Result & Stats

Tromsdalen Uil

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Sandnes ULF

A. Løvland 60'

O. Ugwuadu 85'

K. Eriksen 66', 63'

I. Halgunset 5'

9/18/2019

1. Division · Round 23TUIL Arena (Tromsø)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Tromsdalen Uil44%

×Draw23%

Sandnes ULF33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tromsdalen UilExpected goals in this matchSandnes ULF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.54

Tromsdalen Uil

1.81

Sandnes ULF

1.54

Tromsdalen Uil creates 18% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 97 away

1.60

creates per match

1.21

1.87

allows per match

2.02

creates per match

Tromsdalen Uil

1.60

Sandnes ULF

1.21

allows per match

Tromsdalen Uil

1.87

Sandnes ULF

2.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tromsdalen Uil+0.00on par

Sandnes ULF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tromsdalen Uil ↓

Sandnes ULF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Tromsdalen Uil or draw

67%

Tromsdalen Uil or Sandnes ULF

77%

Draw or Sandnes ULF

56%

Winning margin

Tromsdalen Uil wins by 2+

24%

Sandnes ULF wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Tromsdalen Uil 1+ goals

84%

Tromsdalen Uil 2+ goals

54%

Tromsdalen Uil 3+ goals

27%

Sandnes ULF 1+ goals

79%

Sandnes ULF 2+ goals

45%

Sandnes ULF 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Tromsdalen Uil (draw refunded)

57%

Sandnes ULF (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tromsdalen Uil at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

Sandnes ULF away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.02 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tromsdalen Uil attack 1.60 + Sandnes ULF defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.81

Sandnes ULF attack 1.21 + Tromsdalen Uil defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Tromsdalen Uil scores more

44%

level

23%

Sandnes ULF scores more

33%

Tromsdalen Uil at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Tromsdalen Uil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

I. Halgunset

28'

H. Lysvoll

46'

A. Kryger← Simón Colina

60'

63'

66'

70'

70'

T. Bendiksen← A. Karlsen

70'

A. Berntsen← B. Holmvik

79'

S. Tounekti← L. Johnsen

83'

T. Heikkilä← Á. Jónsson

85'

O. Ugwuadu

Tromsdalen

Sandnes

1

Sahlgren

3

▼

14

22

5

18

▼

Holmvik

6

Landu

7

▼

Colina

17

⚽

Halgunset

30

⚽2

Eriksen

9

⚽

12

4

18

3

19

▼

Karlsen

11

Lysvoll

71

Andreasse

66

⚽

▼

Løvland

15

Ringberg

22

▼

Johnsen

10

Lysvoll

Manager: S. Torneus

70'▲H. Kjæve←▼A. Løvland

70'▲T. Bendiksen←▼A. Karlsen

79'▲S. Tounekti←▼L. Johnsen

Tromsdalen Uil substitutes

7Kjæve8Bendiksen50Tounekti5Lorentzen6Hanssen14Andersen38Trollskar

Manager: B. Sæternes

46'▲A. Kryger←▼Simón Colina

70'▲A. Berntsen←▼B. Holmvik

83'▲T. Heikkilä←▼Á. Jónsson

Sandnes ULF substitutes

4Kryger20Berntsen16Heikkilä19Kostadinov33Formo36Nilsen

Match Recap: Tromsdalen Uil vs Sandnes ULF

Sandnes ULF beat Tromsdalen Uil 4-1 in 1. Division on September 18, 2019.

Goals: I. Halgunset (5'), A. Løvland (60'), K. Eriksen (63', 66'), O. Ugwuadu (85').

The match was played at TUIL Arena (Tromsø).

Tromsdalen Uil vs Sandnes ULF — 1. Division 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Tromsdalen Uil vs Sandnes ULF