Tromsdalen Uil 3–2 Rana: Result & Stats

Tromsdalen Uil

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Rana

E. Aarflot 88'

T. Hafstad 27'

I. K. Selnes 17'

F. Rise 15', 5'

9/27/2025

2. Division - Group 2 · Group 2 - 22TUIL arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Tromsdalen Uil59%

×Draw19%

Rana21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tromsdalen UilExpected goals in this matchRana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

1.36

Tromsdalen Uil

2.35

Rana

1.36

Tromsdalen Uil creates 73% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 19 away

2.38

creates per match

1.63

1.10

allows per match

2.32

creates per match

Tromsdalen Uil

2.38

Rana

1.63

allows per match

Tromsdalen Uil

1.10

Rana

2.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tromsdalen Uil+0.00on par

Rana+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tromsdalen Uil ↓

Rana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Tromsdalen Uil or draw

79%

Tromsdalen Uil or Rana

81%

Draw or Rana

41%

Winning margin

Tromsdalen Uil wins by 2+

37%

Rana wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Tromsdalen Uil 1+ goals

90%

Tromsdalen Uil 2+ goals

68%

Tromsdalen Uil 3+ goals

41%

Rana 1+ goals

74%

Rana 2+ goals

39%

Rana 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Tromsdalen Uil (draw refunded)

73%

Rana (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tromsdalen Uil at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.10 · 58 matches

Rana away — creates 1.63, concedes 2.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tromsdalen Uil attack 2.38 + Rana defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 2.35

Rana attack 1.63 + Tromsdalen Uil defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Tromsdalen Uil scores more

59%

level

19%

Rana scores more

21%

Tromsdalen Uil at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Tromsdalen Uil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

15'

17'

27'

32'

44'

45'

45+1'

45+1'

61'

63'

T. Rekdal← P. Johansen

63'

I. Adolfsen← K. Swaleh

63'

A. Pedersen← I. K. Selnes

63'

J. Fossmo← F. Rise

73'

E. Aarflot← E. Skogvoll

79'

S. Solhaug← S. Beyene

80'

L. Nilsen← C. Breivik

88'

E. Aarflot

89'

S. Nilsen-Modebe

90'

S. Laugsand

90'

P. Hildre← J. Olufsen

90'

M. B. Nilsskog← A. Selliah

Tromsdalen

Rana

1

Strom

4

Fjelldals

5

▼

Selliah

20

Aas

28

Bordal

6

▼

Beyene

8

Froysa

10

Rade

7

⚽2

▼

Rise

11

▼

14

40

4

5

⚽

Hafstad

18

Jacobsen

24

▼

Breivik

17

Sandbukt

32

▼

Johansen

7

▼

Swaleh

8

▼

Skogvoll

20

⚽

▼

Selnes

21

Nilsen-Mo

Manager: A. Samuelsen

63'▲T. Rekdal←▼P. Johansen

63'▲I. Adolfsen←▼K. Swaleh

63'▲A. Pedersen←▼I. K. Selnes

73'▲E. Aarflot←▼E. Skogvoll

80'▲L. Nilsen←▼C. Breivik

Tromsdalen Uil substitutes

12Vang3Nilsen6Hansen9Aarflot13Rekdal16Johnsgard19Adolfsen31Kristoffersen77Pedersen

Manager: Ø. Valla

63'▲J. Fossmo←▼F. Rise

79'▲S. Solhaug←▼S. Beyene

90'▲P. Hildre←▼J. Olufsen

90'▲M. B. Nilsskog←▼A. Selliah

Rana substitutes

22Wardzala3Fossmo9Hildre18Solhaug19Nilsskog

Match Recap: Tromsdalen Uil vs Rana

Tromsdalen Uil beat Rana 3-2 in 2. Division - Group 2 on September 27, 2025.

Goals: F. Rise (5', 15'), I. K. Selnes (17'), T. Hafstad (27'), E. Aarflot (88').

The match was played at TUIL arena in Tromsø.

Tromsdalen Uil vs Rana — 2. Division - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Tromsdalen Uil vs Rana