Tromsdalen Uil 2–2 Kjelsås: Result & Stats

Tromsdalen Uil

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Kjelsås

A. Pedersen 86'

S. Nilsen-Modebe 16'

O. Midtskogen 81', 69'

8/24/2025

2. Division - Group 2 · Group 2 - 17TUIL arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Tromsdalen Uil50%

×Draw23%

Kjelsås28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tromsdalen UilExpected goals in this matchKjelsås

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.33

Tromsdalen Uil

1.86

Kjelsås

1.33

Tromsdalen Uil creates 40% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 70 away

2.38

creates per match

1.56

1.10

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Tromsdalen Uil

2.38

Kjelsås

1.56

allows per match

Tromsdalen Uil

1.10

Kjelsås

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tromsdalen Uil+0.00on par

Kjelsås+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tromsdalen Uil ↓

Kjelsås →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Tromsdalen Uil or draw

72%

Tromsdalen Uil or Kjelsås

77%

Draw or Kjelsås

50%

Winning margin

Tromsdalen Uil wins by 2+

28%

Kjelsås wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Tromsdalen Uil 1+ goals

84%

Tromsdalen Uil 2+ goals

55%

Tromsdalen Uil 3+ goals

28%

Kjelsås 1+ goals

74%

Kjelsås 2+ goals

38%

Kjelsås 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Tromsdalen Uil (draw refunded)

64%

Kjelsås (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tromsdalen Uil at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.10 · 58 matches

Kjelsås away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.34 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tromsdalen Uil attack 2.38 + Kjelsås defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.86

Kjelsås attack 1.56 + Tromsdalen Uil defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Tromsdalen Uil scores more

50%

level

23%

Kjelsås scores more

28%

Tromsdalen Uil at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Tromsdalen Uil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

30'

41'

46'

64'

E. Aarflot← S. Nilsen-Modebe

64'

A. Sandbukt← C. Breivik

65'

P. Askengren← J. Aslaksrud

69'

O. Midtskogen

70'

I. K. Selnes← K. Swaleh

77'

A. Pedersen← I. Adolfsen

81'

O. Midtskogen

84'

H. Vassdal← J. Holter

84'

M. Ali Alzubi← S. Berge

86'

A. Pedersen

Tromsdalen

Kjelsås

24

3

17

28

29

6

▼

Lamin

8

Hermansen

20

▼

Holter

21

▼

Berge

9

▼

Aslaksrud

11

⚽2

1

3

4

5

15

▼

Weber

22

Eliassen

32

Johansen

7

▼

Swaleh

19

▼

Adolfsen

21

⚽

▼

Nilsen-Mo

24

▼

Breivik

Manager: A. Samuelsen

46'▲M. Hansen←▼J. Weber

64'▲E. Aarflot←▼S. Nilsen-Modebe

64'▲A. Sandbukt←▼C. Breivik

70'▲I. K. Selnes←▼K. Swaleh

77'▲A. Pedersen←▼I. Adolfsen

Tromsdalen Uil substitutes

40Tollefsen6Hansen9Aarflot16Johnsgard17Sandbukt18Jacobsen20Selnes77Pedersen

Manager: E. Kampen

41'▲J. Sture←▼K. Lamin

65'▲P. Askengren←▼J. Aslaksrud

84'▲H. Vassdal←▼J. Holter

84'▲M. Ali Alzubi←▼S. Berge

Kjelsås substitutes

1Brauti4Vassdal13Alzubi19Askengren25Sture