Tromsdalen Uil 2–5 Ham-Kam: Result & Stats

Tromsdalen Uil

FT

2 – 5

HT: 0 – 1

Ham-Kam

L. Andreassen 78'

V. Lysvoll 60'

J. Mendy 88'

A. Ibrahim 72'

O. Midtskogen 65'

S. Nordli 49', 2'

9/1/2019

1. Division · Round 21TUIL Arena (Tromsø)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Tromsdalen Uil31%

×Draw23%

Ham-Kam46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tromsdalen UilExpected goals in this matchHam-Kam

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.76

Tromsdalen Uil

1.41

Ham-Kam

1.76

Ham-Kam creates 25% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 46 away

1.60

creates per match

1.65

1.87

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Tromsdalen Uil

1.60

Ham-Kam

1.65

allows per match

Tromsdalen Uil

1.87

Ham-Kam

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tromsdalen Uil+0.00on par

Ham-Kam+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tromsdalen Uil ↓

Ham-Kam →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Tromsdalen Uil or draw

54%

Tromsdalen Uil or Ham-Kam

77%

Draw or Ham-Kam

69%

Winning margin

Tromsdalen Uil wins by 2+

14%

Ham-Kam wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Tromsdalen Uil 1+ goals

76%

Tromsdalen Uil 2+ goals

41%

Tromsdalen Uil 3+ goals

17%

Ham-Kam 1+ goals

83%

Ham-Kam 2+ goals

52%

Ham-Kam 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Tromsdalen Uil (draw refunded)

40%

Ham-Kam (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tromsdalen Uil at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

Ham-Kam away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.22 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tromsdalen Uil attack 1.60 + Ham-Kam defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.41

Ham-Kam attack 1.65 + Tromsdalen Uil defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Tromsdalen Uil scores more

31%

level

23%

Ham-Kam scores more

46%

Ham-Kam at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ham-Kam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

S. Nordli

49'

S. Nordli

60'

V. Lysvoll

61'

Ø. Skallebø← H. Kjæve

61'

L. Andreassen← A. Løvland

65'

O. Midtskogen

68'

A. Ibrahim← O. Midtskogen

72'

A. Ibrahim

73'

J. Mendy← E. Sildnes

78'

S. Tounekti← L. Johnsen

78'

80'

81'

84'

88'

Tromsdalen

Ham-Kam

12

20

4

13

14

6

10

▼

Sildnes

9

Enkerud

22

Onsrud

17

⚽2

▼

Nordli

11

⚽

▼

12

4

18

3

11

8

66

▼

Løvland

15

Ringberg

22

▼

Johnsen

10

⚽

Lysvoll

7

▼

Kjæve

Manager: J. Hill

61'▲Ø. Skallebø←▼H. Kjæve

61'▲L. Andreassen←▼A. Løvland

78'▲S. Tounekti←▼L. Johnsen

Tromsdalen Uil substitutes

20Skallebø71Andreassen50Tounekti1Mikkelsen6Hanssen14Andersen19Karlsen

Manager: G. Helstrup

68'▲A. Ibrahim←▼O. Midtskogen

73'▲J. Mendy←▼E. Sildnes

81'▲H. Norbye←▼S. Nordli

Ham-Kam substitutes

99Ibrahim18Mendy24Norbye2Sæbø30Fagereng