Tromsdalen Uil 4–3 Grorud: Result & Stats

Tromsdalen Uil

FT

4 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Grorud

S. Laugsand 90'

E. Skogvoll 78'

A. Pedersen 58'

M. Larsen 5'

T. Etholm 53'

P. Asp 36'

W. Pozo 32'

8/17/2024

2. Division - Group 2 · Group 2 - 17TUIL Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Tromsdalen Uil49%

×Draw22%

Grorud29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tromsdalen UilExpected goals in this matchGrorud

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.45

Tromsdalen Uil

1.92

Grorud

1.45

Tromsdalen Uil creates 32% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 38 away

2.38

creates per match

1.79

1.10

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Tromsdalen Uil

2.38

Grorud

1.79

allows per match

Tromsdalen Uil

1.10

Grorud

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tromsdalen Uil+0.00on par

Grorud+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tromsdalen Uil ↓

Grorud →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Tromsdalen Uil or draw

71%

Tromsdalen Uil or Grorud

78%

Draw or Grorud

51%

Winning margin

Tromsdalen Uil wins by 2+

27%

Grorud wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Tromsdalen Uil 1+ goals

85%

Tromsdalen Uil 2+ goals

57%

Tromsdalen Uil 3+ goals

30%

Grorud 1+ goals

77%

Grorud 2+ goals

42%

Grorud 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Tromsdalen Uil (draw refunded)

62%

Grorud (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tromsdalen Uil at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.10 · 58 matches

Grorud away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.47 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tromsdalen Uil attack 2.38 + Grorud defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.92

Grorud attack 1.79 + Tromsdalen Uil defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Tromsdalen Uil scores more

49%

level

22%

Grorud scores more

29%

Tromsdalen Uil at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Tromsdalen Uil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

32'

34'

36'

46'

T. Hafstad← I. Selnes

53'

53'

57'

57'

58'

60'

60'

S. Sørlie Henriksen← W. Pozo

61'

T. Hafstad

64'

U. Celius← C. Breivik

64'

P. Johansen← A. Sandbukt

64'

B. Dyrkoren← D. Hafstad

70'

Y. Saad

78'

E. Skogvoll

79'

M. Mahnin← A. Tjomsland

84'

L. Fajfric← P. Asp

85'

J. Weber← A. Pedersen

90'

L. Kvarekval

90'

S. Laugsand

Tromsdalen

Grorud

31

2

4

3

32

6

8

▼

Tjomsland

7

⚽

▼

Etholm

26

⚽

▼

Pozo

17

Sa'Ad

14

⚽

▼

Asp

1

Kamsvåg

4

⚽

Laugsand

33

Vik

24

▼

Breivik

20

▼

Selnes

8

⚽

Skogvoll

23

⚽

Larsen

17

▼

Sandbukt

22

Eliassen

19

⚽

▼

Pedersen

9

▼

Hafstad

Manager: A. Samuelsen

46'▲T. Hafstad←▼I. Selnes

64'▲U. Celius←▼C. Breivik

64'▲P. Johansen←▼A. Sandbukt

64'▲B. Dyrkoren←▼D. Hafstad

85'▲J. Weber←▼A. Pedersen

Tromsdalen Uil substitutes

5Hafstad27Celius32Johansen28Dyrkoren15Weber6Hansen7Swaleh14Pedersen40Tollefsen

Manager: A. Alrek

60'▲M. Dubois←▼T. Etholm

60'▲S. Sørlie Henriksen←▼W. Pozo

79'▲M. Mahnin←▼A. Tjomsland

84'▲L. Fajfric←▼P. Asp

Grorud substitutes

10Dubois25Henriksen19Mahnin20Fajfric12Rychter16Kastrati

Match Recap: Tromsdalen Uil vs Grorud

Tromsdalen Uil beat Grorud 4-3 in 2. Division - Group 2 on August 17, 2024.

Goals: M. Larsen (5'), W. Pozo (32'), P. Asp (36'), T. Etholm (53'), A. Pedersen (58'), E. Skogvoll (78'), S. Laugsand (90').

The match was played at TUIL Arena in Tromsø.

Tromsdalen Uil vs Grorud — 2. Division - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Tromsdalen Uil vs Grorud