Tromsdalen Uil 0–0 Bærum: Result & Stats

Tromsdalen Uil

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bærum

10/21/2023

2. Division - Group 2 · Group 2 - 23TUIL Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Tromsdalen Uil61%

×Draw20%

Bærum19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tromsdalen UilExpected goals in this matchBærum

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.24

1.16

Tromsdalen Uil

2.24

Bærum

1.16

Tromsdalen Uil creates 93% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 42 away

2.38

creates per match

1.21

1.10

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Tromsdalen Uil

2.38

Bærum

1.21

allows per match

Tromsdalen Uil

1.10

Bærum

2.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tromsdalen Uil+0.00on par

Bærum+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tromsdalen Uil ↓

Bærum →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Tromsdalen Uil or draw

81%

Tromsdalen Uil or Bærum

80%

Draw or Bærum

39%

Winning margin

Tromsdalen Uil wins by 2+

39%

Bærum wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Tromsdalen Uil 1+ goals

89%

Tromsdalen Uil 2+ goals

65%

Tromsdalen Uil 3+ goals

38%

Bærum 1+ goals

69%

Bærum 2+ goals

32%

Bærum 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Tromsdalen Uil (draw refunded)

77%

Bærum (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tromsdalen Uil at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.10 · 58 matches

Bærum away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.10 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tromsdalen Uil attack 2.38 + Bærum defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.24

Bærum attack 1.21 + Tromsdalen Uil defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Tromsdalen Uil scores more

61%

level

20%

Bærum scores more

19%

Tromsdalen Uil at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Tromsdalen Uil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+2'

50'

52'

64'

64'

A. Pedersen← S. Henriksen

64'

A. Eliassen← A. Sandbukt

64'

U. Celius← E. Ness

67'

A. Eliassen

79'

P. Vogt

84'

S. Jakobsen← E. Caspersen Egerton

90'

J. Tuven Holter← C. Arvesen

Tromsdalen

Bærum

1

3

2

15

9

19

14

▼

17

7

20

10

1

31

4

5

8

23

17

▼

Sandbukt

10

▼

Egerton

21

▼

Ness

28

▼

Svela

24

▼

Henriksen

Manager: A. Samuelsen

64'▲D. Hafstad←▼S. Svela

64'▲A. Pedersen←▼S. Henriksen

64'▲A. Eliassen←▼A. Sandbukt

64'▲U. Celius←▼E. Ness

84'▲S. Jakobsen←▼E. Caspersen Egerton

Tromsdalen Uil substitutes

9Hafstad19Pedersen22Eliassen27Celius26Jakobsen12Nilsen15Weber3Haugen

Manager: Ø. Garborg

90'▲J. Tuven Holter←▼C. Arvesen

Bærum substitutes

22Holter5Frobenius18Bojang