Tromsø U19 vs Bodø / Glimt U19 — Nasjonal U19 Champions League 2021
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 18+ matches
Tromsø U1957%
Bodø / Glimt U1925%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Tromsø U19 creates 53% more chances
Season form · 18 home / 19 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over80
- Under20
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes76
- No24
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Tromsø U19 ↓
Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Tromsø U19 at home — creates 2.39, concedes 1.89 · 18 matches
Bodø / Glimt U19 away — creates 1.53, concedes 2.84 · 19 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Tromsø U19 attack 2.39 + Bodø / Glimt U19 defence 2.84 → ÷2 → 2.62
Bodø / Glimt U19 attack 1.53 + Tromsø U19 defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.71
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 57%?"
Tromsø U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 57% does not mean "Tromsø U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Lillestrøm U19
Stabæk U19
HamKam U19
Brann U19
Lyn U19
Rosenborg U19
Sandefjord U19Tromsø U19
Strømsgodset U19
Åsane U19
Molde U19
Viking U19
Vålerenga U19
Odd U19
Sarpsborg 08 U19
Haugesund U19
Aalesunds U19
Fredrikstad FK U19
KFUM U19
Kongsvinger IL U19
Kristiansund U19
Moss U19
Sogndal U19
Sandnes Ulf U19Bodø / Glimt U19
Start U19
Bryne U19If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Tromsø U19 host Bodø / Glimt U19 on Tuesday, 2 April 2024 at 12:00. The match is part of the Nasjonal U19 Champions League 2021/2022 season.
Nasjonal U19 Champions League: Tromsø U19 3–2 Bodø / Glimt U19
Tromsø U19 beat Bodø / Glimt U19 3-2 in Nasjonal U19 Champions League on April 2, 2024.
The match was played at Romssa Arena in Tromsø.