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Tromsø II vs Sortland — 3. Division - Girone 1 2021

Tromsø II
Tromsø II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sortland
Sortland
A. Evensen-Jensen 28'
M. Abelsen 67'
10/4/20253. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 23Romssa Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Tromsø II72%
×Draw14%
Sortland14%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tromsø II
3.31
Sortland
1.46

Tromsø II creates 127% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Tromsø II
2.62
Sortland
1.23

allows per match

Tromsø II
1.69
Sortland
4.00

finishing

Tromsø II+0.00on par
Sortland+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tromsø II ↓

Sortland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–17%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Tromsø II or draw
86%
Tromsø II or Sortland
86%
Draw or Sortland
28%

Winning margin

Tromsø II wins by 2+
53%
Sortland wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Tromsø II 1+ goals
96%
Tromsø II 2+ goals
83%
Tromsø II 3+ goals
62%
Sortland 1+ goals
77%
Sortland 2+ goals
43%
Sortland 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Tromsø II (draw refunded)
84%
Sortland (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tromsø II at home — creates 2.62, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

Sortland away — creates 1.23, concedes 4.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tromsø II attack 2.62 + Sortland defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.31

Sortland attack 1.23 + Tromsø II defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Tromsø II scores more
72%
level
14%
Sortland scores more
14%

Tromsø II at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Tromsø II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'
A. Evensen-Jensen
67'
M. Abelsen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 1: Tromsø II 1–1 Sortland

Tromsø II and Sortland drew 1-1 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on October 4, 2025.

Goals: A. Evensen-Jensen (28'), M. Abelsen (67').

The match was played at Romssa Arena in Tromsø.