Tromsø II 1–1 Skeid II: Result & Stats

Tromsø II

FT

1 – 1

Skeid II

8/14/2021

3. Division - Girone 6 · Girone 6 - 2Alfheim Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Tromsø II54%

×Draw20%

Skeid II27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tromsø IIExpected goals in this matchSkeid II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

1.65

Tromsø II

2.38

Skeid II

1.65

Tromsø II creates 44% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 19 away

2.39

creates per match

1.84

1.45

allows per match

2.37

creates per match

Tromsø II

2.39

Skeid II

1.84

allows per match

Tromsø II

1.45

Skeid II

2.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tromsø II+0.00on par

Skeid II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tromsø II ↓

Skeid II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Tromsø II or draw

73%

Tromsø II or Skeid II

80%

Draw or Skeid II

46%

Winning margin

Tromsø II wins by 2+

33%

Skeid II wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Tromsø II 1+ goals

91%

Tromsø II 2+ goals

68%

Tromsø II 3+ goals

42%

Skeid II 1+ goals

81%

Skeid II 2+ goals

49%

Skeid II 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Tromsø II (draw refunded)

67%

Skeid II (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tromsø II at home — creates 2.39, concedes 1.45 · 33 matches

Skeid II away — creates 1.84, concedes 2.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tromsø II attack 2.39 + Skeid II defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.38

Skeid II attack 1.84 + Tromsø II defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Tromsø II scores more

54%

level

20%

Skeid II scores more

27%

Tromsø II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Tromsø II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff