Tromsø II 2–0 Skånland: Result & Stats

Tromsø II

FT

2 – 0

Skånland

10/30/2021

3. Division - Girone 6 · Girone 6 - 13Alfheim Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Tromsø II63%

×Draw18%

Skånland19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tromsø IIExpected goals in this matchSkånland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.62

1.39

Tromsø II

2.62

Skånland

1.39

Tromsø II creates 88% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 19 away

2.39

creates per match

1.32

1.45

allows per match

2.84

creates per match

Tromsø II

2.39

Skånland

1.32

allows per match

Tromsø II

1.45

Skånland

2.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tromsø II+0.00on par

Skånland+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tromsø II ↓

Skånland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Tromsø II or draw

81%

Tromsø II or Skånland

82%

Draw or Skånland

37%

Winning margin

Tromsø II wins by 2+

42%

Skånland wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Tromsø II 1+ goals

93%

Tromsø II 2+ goals

73%

Tromsø II 3+ goals

48%

Skånland 1+ goals

75%

Skånland 2+ goals

40%

Skånland 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Tromsø II (draw refunded)

77%

Skånland (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tromsø II at home — creates 2.39, concedes 1.45 · 33 matches

Skånland away — creates 1.32, concedes 2.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tromsø II attack 2.39 + Skånland defence 2.84 → ÷2 → 2.62

Skånland attack 1.32 + Tromsø II defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Tromsø II scores more

63%

level

18%

Skånland scores more

19%

Tromsø II at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Tromsø II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff