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Tromsø II vs Alta II — 3. Division - Girone 1 2021

Tromsø II
Tromsø II
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Alta II
Alta II
L. Olai Nilsen 76', 68'
J. Nois 58'
M. Mikkelsen 23'
10/20/20253. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 25Romssa Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Tromsø II69%
×Draw15%
Alta II16%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tromsø II
3.27
Alta II
1.57

Tromsø II creates 108% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Tromsø II
2.62
Alta II
1.46

allows per match

Tromsø II
1.69
Alta II
3.92

finishing

Tromsø II+0.00on par
Alta II+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tromsø II ↓

Alta II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
70%30%4.5
51%49%

Double chance

Tromsø II or draw
84%
Tromsø II or Alta II
85%
Draw or Alta II
31%

Winning margin

Tromsø II wins by 2+
50%
Alta II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Tromsø II 1+ goals
96%
Tromsø II 2+ goals
83%
Tromsø II 3+ goals
62%
Alta II 1+ goals
79%
Alta II 2+ goals
46%
Alta II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Tromsø II (draw refunded)
81%
Alta II (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tromsø II at home — creates 2.62, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

Alta II away — creates 1.46, concedes 3.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tromsø II attack 2.62 + Alta II defence 3.92 → ÷2 → 3.27

Alta II attack 1.46 + Tromsø II defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Tromsø II scores more
69%
level
15%
Alta II scores more
16%

Tromsø II at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Tromsø II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
M. Mikkelsen
58'
J. Nois
68'
L. Olai Nilsen
76'
L. Olai Nilsen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 1: Tromsø II 4–0 Alta II

Tromsø II beat Alta II 4-0 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on October 20, 2025.

Goals: M. Mikkelsen (23'), J. Nois (58'), L. Olai Nilsen (68', 76').

The match was played at Romssa Arena in Tromsø.