Trollhättan 2–0 Olympic: Result & Stats

Trollhättan

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Olympic

5/4/2024

Ettan - Södra · Södra - 6Edsborgs IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Trollhättan46%

×Draw23%

Olympic31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TrollhättanExpected goals in this matchOlympic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.40

Trollhättan

1.74

Olympic

1.40

Trollhättan creates 24% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 67 away

1.87

creates per match

1.43

1.38

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Trollhättan

1.87

Olympic

1.43

allows per match

Trollhättan

1.38

Olympic

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trollhättan+0.00on par

Olympic+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trollhättan ↓

Olympic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Trollhättan or draw

69%

Trollhättan or Olympic

77%

Draw or Olympic

54%

Winning margin

Trollhättan wins by 2+

24%

Olympic wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Trollhättan 1+ goals

82%

Trollhättan 2+ goals

52%

Trollhättan 3+ goals

25%

Olympic 1+ goals

75%

Olympic 2+ goals

41%

Olympic 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Trollhättan (draw refunded)

59%

Olympic (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trollhättan at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.38 · 114 matches

Olympic away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.60 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trollhättan attack 1.87 + Olympic defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.74

Olympic attack 1.43 + Trollhättan defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Trollhättan scores more

46%

level

23%

Olympic scores more

31%

Trollhättan at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Trollhättan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff