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Trollhättan vs Gais — Svenska Cupen 2019

Trollhättan
Trollhättan
FT
2 – 4
HT: 2 – 4
Gais
Gais
8/21/2024Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · 2nd RoundEdsborgs IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Trollhättan30%
×Draw21%
Gais48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trollhättan
1.58
Gais
2.04

Gais creates 29% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 18 away

creates per match

Trollhättan
1.50
Gais
1.44

allows per match

Trollhättan
2.63
Gais
1.67

finishing

Trollhättan+0.00on par
Gais+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trollhättan ↓

Gais →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Trollhättan or draw
52%
Trollhättan or Gais
79%
Draw or Gais
70%

Winning margin

Trollhättan wins by 2+
14%
Gais wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Trollhättan 1+ goals
79%
Trollhättan 2+ goals
47%
Trollhättan 3+ goals
21%
Gais 1+ goals
87%
Gais 2+ goals
60%
Gais 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Trollhättan (draw refunded)
38%
Gais (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trollhättan at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.63 · 8 matches

Gais away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trollhättan attack 1.50 + Gais defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.58

Gais attack 1.44 + Trollhättan defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Trollhättan scores more
30%
level
21%
Gais scores more
48%

Gais at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Gais will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: Trollhättan 2–4 Gais

Gais beat Trollhättan 4-2 in Svenska Cupen on August 21, 2024.

The match was played at Edsborgs IP in Trollhättan.