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Trollhättan vs BK Hacken — Svenska Cupen 2019

Trollhättan
Trollhättan
FT
1 – 6
HT: 1 – 3
BK Hacken
BK Hacken
2/25/2023Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 2Edsborgs IP Konstgräs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Trollhättan14%
×Draw15%
BK Hacken72%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trollhättan
1.36
BK Hacken
3.17

BK Hacken creates 133% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 18 away

creates per match

Trollhättan
1.50
BK Hacken
3.72

allows per match

Trollhättan
2.63
BK Hacken
1.22

finishing

Trollhättan+0.00on par
BK Hacken+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trollhättan ↓

BK Hacken →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–26%
0–36%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Trollhättan or draw
28%
Trollhättan or BK Hacken
85%
Draw or BK Hacken
86%

Winning margin

Trollhättan wins by 2+
5%
BK Hacken wins by 2+
53%

Team goals

Trollhättan 1+ goals
74%
Trollhättan 2+ goals
39%
Trollhättan 3+ goals
16%
BK Hacken 1+ goals
96%
BK Hacken 2+ goals
82%
BK Hacken 3+ goals
60%

Draw no bet

Trollhättan (draw refunded)
16%
BK Hacken (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trollhättan at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.63 · 8 matches

BK Hacken away — creates 3.72, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trollhättan attack 1.50 + BK Hacken defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.36

BK Hacken attack 3.72 + Trollhättan defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 3.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Trollhättan scores more
14%
level
15%
BK Hacken scores more
72%

BK Hacken at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "BK Hacken will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Trollhättan vs BK Hacken

BK Hacken beat Trollhättan 6-1 in Svenska Cupen on February 25, 2023.

The match was played at Edsborgs IP Konstgräs in Trollhättan.