Trofense 1–2 Penafiel: Result & Stats

Trofense

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Penafiel

S. Okitokandjo 74'

Roberto 50'

Adriano Castanheira 7'

2/24/2023

Segunda Liga · Round 22Estádio do Clube Desportivo Trofense

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Trofense37%

×Draw27%

Penafiel36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TrofenseExpected goals in this matchPenafiel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.23

Trofense

1.25

Penafiel

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 130 away

1.09

creates per match

1.02

1.44

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Trofense

1.09

Penafiel

1.02

allows per match

Trofense

1.44

Penafiel

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trofense+0.00on par

Penafiel+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trofense ↓

Penafiel →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Trofense or draw

64%

Trofense or Penafiel

73%

Draw or Penafiel

63%

Winning margin

Trofense wins by 2+

16%

Penafiel wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Trofense 1+ goals

71%

Trofense 2+ goals

36%

Trofense 3+ goals

13%

Penafiel 1+ goals

71%

Penafiel 2+ goals

35%

Penafiel 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Trofense (draw refunded)

51%

Penafiel (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trofense at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.44 · 34 matches

Penafiel away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.41 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trofense attack 1.09 + Penafiel defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.25

Penafiel attack 1.02 + Trofense defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Trofense scores more

37%

level

27%

Penafiel scores more

36%

Trofense at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Trofense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

Adriano Castanheira

14'

Mohamed Cheik Ali Toure

14'

Marcos Valente

18'

Roberto← Fábio Fortes

36'

Mica

45+6'

Mohamed Cheik Ali Toure

45+6'

Mohamed Cheik Ali Toure

45+5'

Vasco Braga

46'

Pachu← Eduardo Soares

50'

53'

62'

70'

70'

S. Okitokandjo← Erivaldo

71'

Tiago André← Tiago Manso

73'

Simãozinho

74'

S. Okitokandjo

85'

Caio

85'

Daniel Liberal← Hélder Morim

86'

João Oliveira← Edi Semedo

87'

Rúben Freitas← Adriano Castanheira

90+2'

João Oliveira

Shots

Statistics

TrofensePenafiel

Overview

13Total Shots12

4Corners4

10Fouls17

Shots

13Total Shots12

7On Target5

3Off Target6

3Blocked1

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

10Fouls17

4Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards0

2Offsides1