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Trofense vs Famalicao — Taça de Portugal 2018

Trofense
Trofense
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Famalicao
Famalicao
10/15/2022Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 3rd RoundEstádio do Clube Desportivo Trofense

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Trofense33%
×Draw24%
Famalicao44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trofense
1.43
Famalicao
1.68

Famalicao creates 17% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

creates per match

Trofense
1.86
Famalicao
1.93

allows per match

Trofense
1.43
Famalicao
1.00

finishing

Trofense+0.00on par
Famalicao+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trofense ↓

Famalicao →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–26%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Trofense or draw
56%
Trofense or Famalicao
76%
Draw or Famalicao
67%

Winning margin

Trofense wins by 2+
15%
Famalicao wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Trofense 1+ goals
76%
Trofense 2+ goals
42%
Trofense 3+ goals
17%
Famalicao 1+ goals
81%
Famalicao 2+ goals
50%
Famalicao 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Trofense (draw refunded)
43%
Famalicao (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trofense at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Famalicao away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trofense attack 1.86 + Famalicao defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.43

Famalicao attack 1.93 + Trofense defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Trofense scores more
33%
level
24%
Famalicao scores more
44%

Famalicao at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Famalicao will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Trofense vs Famalicao

Famalicao beat Trofense 1-0 in Taça de Portugal on October 15, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio do Clube Desportivo Trofense in Trofa.