Trofense 1–1 Benfica: Result & Stats

Trofense

AET

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Benfica

Pachu 80'

André Almeida 94'

Éverton 21'

10/16/2021

Taça de Portugal · 3rd RoundEstádio do Clube Desportivo Trofense

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Trofense29%

×Draw24%

Benfica47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TrofenseExpected goals in this matchBenfica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.67

Trofense

1.25

Benfica

1.67

Benfica creates 34% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 24 away

1.86

creates per match

1.92

1.43

allows per match

0.63

creates per match

Trofense

1.86

Benfica

1.92

allows per match

Trofense

1.43

Benfica

0.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trofense+0.00on par

Benfica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trofense ↓

Benfica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Trofense or draw

53%

Trofense or Benfica

76%

Draw or Benfica

71%

Winning margin

Trofense wins by 2+

12%

Benfica wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Trofense 1+ goals

71%

Trofense 2+ goals

36%

Trofense 3+ goals

13%

Benfica 1+ goals

81%

Benfica 2+ goals

50%

Benfica 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Trofense (draw refunded)

38%

Benfica (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trofense at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Benfica away — creates 1.92, concedes 0.63 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trofense attack 1.86 + Benfica defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.25

Benfica attack 1.92 + Trofense defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Trofense scores more

29%

level

24%

Benfica scores more

47%

Benfica at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Benfica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

Pizzi

Benfica · F

7.9

Match Events

6'

M. Achouri← B. Diedhiou

21'

24'

31'

50'

50'

Ferro← V. Lazaro

62'

J. Weigl← S. Meïté

62'

João Mário← A. Taarabt

62'

R. Yaremchuk← Gonçalo Ramos

68'

80'

90+4'

90+3'

90+7'

91'

94'

96'

Keffel← Pachu

96'

Rodrigo Ferreira← Bruno Almeida

97'

Simão Martins← Caio Marcelo

101'

Andrézinho← Tiago André

102'

110'

111'

120+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TrofenseBenfica

Overview

35%Possession65%

11Total Shots20

5Corners8

18Fouls19

Shots

11Total Shots20

1On Target8

8Off Target5

2Blocked7

4Inside Box15

7Outside Box5

Passing

35%Possession65%

362Total Passes684

244Accurate Passes563

67%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

6Saves0

Discipline

18Fouls19

3Yellow Cards6

2Offsides0