Trofense 4–2 Águeda: Result & Stats

Trofense

4 – 2

Águeda

10/11/2020

Taça de Portugal · 2nd RoundEstádio do Clube Desportivo Trofense

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Trofense58%

×Draw22%

Águeda20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TrofenseExpected goals in this matchÁgueda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.05

Trofense

1.93

Águeda

1.05

Trofense creates 84% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

1.86

creates per match

0.67

1.43

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Trofense

1.86

Águeda

0.67

allows per match

Trofense

1.43

Águeda

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trofense+0.00on par

Águeda+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trofense ↓

Águeda →

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Trofense or draw

80%

Trofense or Águeda

78%

Draw or Águeda

42%

Winning margin

Trofense wins by 2+

34%

Águeda wins by 2+

Team goals

Trofense 1+ goals

85%

Trofense 2+ goals

57%

Trofense 3+ goals

30%

Águeda 1+ goals

65%

Águeda 2+ goals

28%

Águeda 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Trofense (draw refunded)

74%

Águeda (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Trofense at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Águeda away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Trofense attack 1.86 + Águeda defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.93

Águeda attack 0.67 + Trofense defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 58%?"

Trofense scores more

58%

level

22%

Águeda scores more

20%

Trofense at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Trofense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff