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Trnje vs Zrinski Jurjevac — Second NL 2022

Trnje
Trnje
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Zrinski Jurjevac
Zrinski Jurjevac
M. Tadic 70' (OG)
N. Silic 59'
I. Lozic 20'
P. Pejic 12'
3/4/2023Second NLSecond NL · Round 17Stadion Trnje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Trnje28%
×Draw26%
Zrinski Jurjevac46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trnje
1.08
Zrinski Jurjevac
1.46

Zrinski Jurjevac creates 35% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 15 away

creates per match

Trnje
1.37
Zrinski Jurjevac
1.53

allows per match

Trnje
1.38
Zrinski Jurjevac
0.80

finishing

Trnje+0.00on par
Zrinski Jurjevac+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trnje ↓

Zrinski Jurjevac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Trnje or draw
54%
Trnje or Zrinski Jurjevac
74%
Draw or Zrinski Jurjevac
72%

Winning margin

Trnje wins by 2+
11%
Zrinski Jurjevac wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Trnje 1+ goals
66%
Trnje 2+ goals
29%
Trnje 3+ goals
10%
Zrinski Jurjevac 1+ goals
77%
Zrinski Jurjevac 2+ goals
43%
Zrinski Jurjevac 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Trnje (draw refunded)
38%
Zrinski Jurjevac (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trnje at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.38 · 60 matches

Zrinski Jurjevac away — creates 1.53, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trnje attack 1.37 + Zrinski Jurjevac defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.08

Zrinski Jurjevac attack 1.53 + Trnje defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Trnje scores more
28%
level
26%
Zrinski Jurjevac scores more
46%

Zrinski Jurjevac at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Zrinski Jurjevac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
P. Pejic
20'
I. Lozic
59'
N. Silic
70'
M. TadicOwn goal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second NL: Trnje 1–3 Zrinski Jurjevac

Zrinski Jurjevac beat Trnje 3-1 in Second NL on March 4, 2023.

Goals: P. Pejic (12'), I. Lozic (20'), N. Silic (59'), M. Tadic (70' o.g.).

The match was played at Stadion Trnje in Zagreb.