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Trnje vs Jadran Poreč — Second NL 2022

Trnje
Trnje
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Jadran Poreč
Jadran Poreč
D. Ceraj 89'
O. Kesse 16', 10'
F. Filipovic 57'
M. Ivetic 41'
Vlizlo Robert 18'
10/29/2022Second NLSecond NL · Round 11Stadion Trnje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Trnje57%
×Draw21%
Jadran Poreč22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trnje
2.05
Jadran Poreč
1.19

Trnje creates 72% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 45 away

creates per match

Trnje
1.37
Jadran Poreč
1.00

allows per match

Trnje
1.38
Jadran Poreč
2.73

finishing

Trnje+0.00on par
Jadran Poreč+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trnje ↓

Jadran Poreč →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Trnje or draw
78%
Trnje or Jadran Poreč
79%
Draw or Jadran Poreč
43%

Winning margin

Trnje wins by 2+
34%
Jadran Poreč wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Trnje 1+ goals
87%
Trnje 2+ goals
61%
Trnje 3+ goals
33%
Jadran Poreč 1+ goals
70%
Jadran Poreč 2+ goals
33%
Jadran Poreč 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Trnje (draw refunded)
72%
Jadran Poreč (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trnje at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.38 · 60 matches

Jadran Poreč away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.73 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trnje attack 1.37 + Jadran Poreč defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.05

Jadran Poreč attack 1.00 + Trnje defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Trnje scores more
57%
level
21%
Jadran Poreč scores more
22%

Trnje at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Trnje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
O. Kesse
16'
O. Kesse
18'
Vlizlo Robert
41'
M. Ivetic
57'
F. Filipovic
89'
D. Ceraj

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second NL: Trnje 3–3 Jadran Poreč

Trnje and Jadran Poreč drew 3-3 in Second NL on October 29, 2022.

Goals: O. Kesse (10', 16'), Vlizlo Robert (18'), M. Ivetic (41'), F. Filipovic (57'), D. Ceraj (89').

The match was played at Stadion Trnje in Zagreb.