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Jadran Poreč vs Trnje — Second NL 2022

Jadran Poreč
Jadran Poreč
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Trnje
Trnje
5/10/2025Second NLSecond NL · Round 27Stadion Veli Jože

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Jadran Poreč47%
×Draw23%
Trnje29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jadran Poreč
1.76
Trnje
1.34

Jadran Poreč creates 31% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 60 away

creates per match

Jadran Poreč
1.49
Trnje
1.13

allows per match

Jadran Poreč
1.56
Trnje
2.03

finishing

Jadran Poreč+0.00on par
Trnje+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jadran Poreč ↓

Trnje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Jadran Poreč or draw
71%
Jadran Poreč or Trnje
77%
Draw or Trnje
53%

Winning margin

Jadran Poreč wins by 2+
25%
Trnje wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Jadran Poreč 1+ goals
83%
Jadran Poreč 2+ goals
52%
Jadran Poreč 3+ goals
26%
Trnje 1+ goals
74%
Trnje 2+ goals
39%
Trnje 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Jadran Poreč (draw refunded)
62%
Trnje (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jadran Poreč at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.56 · 45 matches

Trnje away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.03 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jadran Poreč attack 1.49 + Trnje defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.76

Trnje attack 1.13 + Jadran Poreč defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Jadran Poreč scores more
47%
level
23%
Trnje scores more
29%

Jadran Poreč at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Jadran Poreč will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second NL: Jadran Poreč 1–2 Trnje

Trnje beat Jadran Poreč 2-1 in Second NL on May 10, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Veli Jože in Poreč.