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Trnje vs Grobničan Čavle — Second NL 2022

Trnje
Trnje
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Grobničan Čavle
Grobničan Čavle
11/25/2023Second NLSecond NL · Round 15Stadion Trnje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Trnje48%
×Draw24%
Grobničan Čavle27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trnje
1.65
Grobničan Čavle
1.18

Trnje creates 40% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 60 away

creates per match

Trnje
1.37
Grobničan Čavle
0.98

allows per match

Trnje
1.38
Grobničan Čavle
1.93

finishing

Trnje+0.00on par
Grobničan Čavle+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trnje ↓

Grobničan Čavle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Trnje or draw
73%
Trnje or Grobničan Čavle
76%
Draw or Grobničan Čavle
52%

Winning margin

Trnje wins by 2+
25%
Grobničan Čavle wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Trnje 1+ goals
81%
Trnje 2+ goals
49%
Trnje 3+ goals
23%
Grobničan Čavle 1+ goals
69%
Grobničan Čavle 2+ goals
33%
Grobničan Čavle 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Trnje (draw refunded)
64%
Grobničan Čavle (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trnje at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.38 · 60 matches

Grobničan Čavle away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.93 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trnje attack 1.37 + Grobničan Čavle defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.65

Grobničan Čavle attack 0.98 + Trnje defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Trnje scores more
48%
level
24%
Grobničan Čavle scores more
27%

Trnje at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Trnje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Trnje vs Grobničan Čavle

Trnje beat Grobničan Čavle 1-0 in Second NL on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Trnje in Zagreb.