Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Grobničan Čavle vs Trnje — Second NL 2022

Grobničan Čavle
Grobničan Čavle
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Trnje
Trnje
D. Pilcic 18'
5/3/2025Second NLSecond NL · Round 26Stadion Adelija Haramija Beba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Grobničan Čavle51%
×Draw22%
Trnje26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grobničan Čavle
1.90
Trnje
1.30

Grobničan Čavle creates 46% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 60 away

creates per match

Grobničan Čavle
1.78
Trnje
1.13

allows per match

Grobničan Čavle
1.48
Trnje
2.03

finishing

Grobničan Čavle+0.00on par
Trnje+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grobničan Čavle ↓

Trnje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Grobničan Čavle or draw
74%
Grobničan Čavle or Trnje
78%
Draw or Trnje
49%

Winning margin

Grobničan Čavle wins by 2+
29%
Trnje wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Grobničan Čavle 1+ goals
85%
Grobničan Čavle 2+ goals
56%
Grobničan Čavle 3+ goals
29%
Trnje 1+ goals
73%
Trnje 2+ goals
37%
Trnje 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Grobničan Čavle (draw refunded)
66%
Trnje (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grobničan Čavle at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.48 · 60 matches

Trnje away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.03 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grobničan Čavle attack 1.78 + Trnje defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.90

Trnje attack 1.13 + Grobničan Čavle defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Grobničan Čavle scores more
51%
level
22%
Trnje scores more
26%

Grobničan Čavle at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Grobničan Čavle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
D. Pilcic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Grobničan Čavle vs Trnje

Grobničan Čavle beat Trnje 1-0 in Second NL on May 3, 2025.

Goals: D. Pilcic (18').

The match was played at Stadion Adelija Haramija Beba in Čavle.