Trnje 0–1 Dugo Selo: Result & Stats | Second NL

Trnje

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Dugo Selo

5/30/2026

Second NL · Round 30

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Trnje43%

×Draw25%

Dugo Selo32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TrnjeExpected goals in this matchDugo Selo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.31

Trnje

1.54

Dugo Selo

1.31

Trnje creates 18% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 60 away

1.37

creates per match

1.25

1.38

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Trnje

1.37

Dugo Selo

1.25

allows per match

Trnje

1.38

Dugo Selo

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trnje+0.00on par

Dugo Selo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trnje ↓

Dugo Selo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Trnje or draw

68%

Trnje or Dugo Selo

75%

Draw or Dugo Selo

57%

Winning margin

Trnje wins by 2+

21%

Dugo Selo wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Trnje 1+ goals

79%

Trnje 2+ goals

45%

Trnje 3+ goals

20%

Dugo Selo 1+ goals

73%

Dugo Selo 2+ goals

38%

Dugo Selo 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Trnje (draw refunded)

57%

Dugo Selo (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trnje at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.38 · 60 matches

Dugo Selo away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.72 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trnje attack 1.37 + Dugo Selo defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.54

Dugo Selo attack 1.25 + Trnje defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Trnje scores more

43%

level

25%

Dugo Selo scores more

32%

Trnje at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Trnje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff