Trivartis Vilnius 0–13 Panevėžys: Result & Stats

Trivartis Vilnius

0 – 13

HT: 0 – 6

Panevėžys

5/7/2025

Cup · Round of 32Aukštaitija stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Trivartis Vilnius1%

×Draw2%

Panevėžys97%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trivartis VilniusExpected goals in this matchPanevėžys

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.48

5.56

Trivartis Vilnius

0.48

Panevėžys

5.56

Panevėžys creates 1058% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 17 away

0.20

creates per match

3.12

8.00

allows per match

0.76

creates per match

Trivartis Vilnius

0.20

Panevėžys

3.12

allows per match

Trivartis Vilnius

8.00

Panevėžys

0.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trivartis Vilnius+0.00on par

Panevėžys+0.00on par

Total goals

Over91
Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trivartis Vilnius ↓

Panevėžys →

0–00%

0–12%

0–25%

0–310%

0–414%

1–00%

1–11%

1–23%

1–35%

1–47%

2–00%

2–10%

2–21%

2–31%

2–42%

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (14%) · grid covers 51% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

91%9%3.5

78%22%4.5

59%41%

Double chance

Trivartis Vilnius or draw

Trivartis Vilnius or Panevėžys

98%

Draw or Panevėžys

99%

Winning margin

Trivartis Vilnius wins by 2+

Panevėžys wins by 2+

91%

Team goals

Trivartis Vilnius 1+ goals

38%

Trivartis Vilnius 2+ goals

Trivartis Vilnius 3+ goals

Panevėžys 1+ goals

99%

Panevėžys 2+ goals

96%

Panevėžys 3+ goals

87%

Draw no bet

Trivartis Vilnius (draw refunded)

Panevėžys (draw refunded)

99%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Trivartis Vilnius at home — creates 0.20, concedes 8.00 · 5 matches

Panevėžys away — creates 3.12, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Trivartis Vilnius attack 0.20 + Panevėžys defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.48

Panevėžys attack 3.12 + Trivartis Vilnius defence 8.00 → ÷2 → 5.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 97%?"

Trivartis Vilnius scores more

level

Panevėžys scores more

97%

Panevėžys at 97% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 97% does not mean "Panevėžys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff