Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Trival Valderas vs San Fernando Henares — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Trival Valderas
Trival Valderas
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
San Fernando Henares
San Fernando Henares
8/25/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 1Estadio La Canaleja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Trival Valderas49%
×Draw25%
San Fernando Henares25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trival Valderas
1.58
San Fernando Henares
1.06

Trival Valderas creates 49% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 29 away

creates per match

Trival Valderas
1.33
San Fernando Henares
1.14

allows per match

Trival Valderas
0.99
San Fernando Henares
1.83

finishing

Trival Valderas+0.00on par
San Fernando Henares+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trival Valderas ↓

San Fernando Henares →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Trival Valderas or draw
75%
Trival Valderas or San Fernando Henares
75%
Draw or San Fernando Henares
51%

Winning margin

Trival Valderas wins by 2+
26%
San Fernando Henares wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Trival Valderas 1+ goals
79%
Trival Valderas 2+ goals
47%
Trival Valderas 3+ goals
21%
San Fernando Henares 1+ goals
65%
San Fernando Henares 2+ goals
29%
San Fernando Henares 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Trival Valderas (draw refunded)
66%
San Fernando Henares (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trival Valderas at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.99 · 114 matches

San Fernando Henares away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.83 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trival Valderas attack 1.33 + San Fernando Henares defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.58

San Fernando Henares attack 1.14 + Trival Valderas defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Trival Valderas scores more
49%
level
25%
San Fernando Henares scores more
25%

Trival Valderas at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Trival Valderas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Trival Valderas 2–1 San Fernando Henares

Trival Valderas beat San Fernando Henares 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on August 25, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio La Canaleja in Alcorcón.