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Trival Valderas vs RSD Alcalá — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Trival Valderas
Trival Valderas
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
RSD Alcalá
RSD Alcalá
2/16/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 22Estadio La Canaleja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Trival Valderas40%
×Draw28%
RSD Alcalá32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trival Valderas
1.27
RSD Alcalá
1.11

Trival Valderas creates 14% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 99 away

creates per match

Trival Valderas
1.33
RSD Alcalá
1.23

allows per match

Trival Valderas
0.99
RSD Alcalá
1.20

finishing

Trival Valderas+0.00on par
RSD Alcalá+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trival Valderas ↓

RSD Alcalá →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Trival Valderas or draw
68%
Trival Valderas or RSD Alcalá
72%
Draw or RSD Alcalá
60%

Winning margin

Trival Valderas wins by 2+
18%
RSD Alcalá wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Trival Valderas 1+ goals
72%
Trival Valderas 2+ goals
36%
Trival Valderas 3+ goals
14%
RSD Alcalá 1+ goals
67%
RSD Alcalá 2+ goals
30%
RSD Alcalá 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Trival Valderas (draw refunded)
55%
RSD Alcalá (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trival Valderas at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.99 · 114 matches

RSD Alcalá away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.20 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trival Valderas attack 1.33 + RSD Alcalá defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.27

RSD Alcalá attack 1.23 + Trival Valderas defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Trival Valderas scores more
40%
level
28%
RSD Alcalá scores more
32%

Trival Valderas at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Trival Valderas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Trival Valderas vs RSD Alcalá

RSD Alcalá beat Trival Valderas 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on February 16, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio La Canaleja in Alcorcón.