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Trival Valderas vs Rayo Vallecano II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Trival Valderas
Trival Valderas
FT
5 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Rayo Vallecano II
Rayo Vallecano II
9/29/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 4Estadio La Canaleja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Trival Valderas43%
×Draw26%
Rayo Vallecano II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trival Valderas
1.43
Rayo Vallecano II
1.18

Trival Valderas creates 21% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 97 away

creates per match

Trival Valderas
1.33
Rayo Vallecano II
1.36

allows per match

Trival Valderas
0.99
Rayo Vallecano II
1.53

finishing

Trival Valderas+0.00on par
Rayo Vallecano II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trival Valderas ↓

Rayo Vallecano II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Trival Valderas or draw
69%
Trival Valderas or Rayo Vallecano II
74%
Draw or Rayo Vallecano II
57%

Winning margin

Trival Valderas wins by 2+
20%
Rayo Vallecano II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Trival Valderas 1+ goals
76%
Trival Valderas 2+ goals
42%
Trival Valderas 3+ goals
17%
Rayo Vallecano II 1+ goals
69%
Rayo Vallecano II 2+ goals
33%
Rayo Vallecano II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Trival Valderas (draw refunded)
58%
Rayo Vallecano II (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trival Valderas at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.99 · 114 matches

Rayo Vallecano II away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.53 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trival Valderas attack 1.33 + Rayo Vallecano II defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.43

Rayo Vallecano II attack 1.36 + Trival Valderas defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Trival Valderas scores more
43%
level
26%
Rayo Vallecano II scores more
31%

Trival Valderas at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Trival Valderas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Trival Valderas 5–1 Rayo Vallecano II

Trival Valderas beat Rayo Vallecano II 5-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on September 29, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio La Canaleja in Alcorcón.