Trival Valderas 0–1 Madrid 2021 FP: Result & Stats

Trival Valderas

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Madrid 2021 FP

2/20/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 30Estadio La Canaleja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Trival Valderas41%

×Draw27%

Madrid 2021 FP32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trival ValderasExpected goals in this matchMadrid 2021 FP

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.13

Trival Valderas

1.33

Madrid 2021 FP

1.13

Trival Valderas creates 18% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 35 away

1.33

creates per match

1.26

0.99

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Trival Valderas

1.33

Madrid 2021 FP

1.26

allows per match

Trival Valderas

0.99

Madrid 2021 FP

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trival Valderas+0.00on par

Madrid 2021 FP+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trival Valderas ↓

Madrid 2021 FP →

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Trival Valderas or draw

68%

Trival Valderas or Madrid 2021 FP

73%

Draw or Madrid 2021 FP

59%

Winning margin

Trival Valderas wins by 2+

19%

Madrid 2021 FP wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Trival Valderas 1+ goals

74%

Trival Valderas 2+ goals

38%

Trival Valderas 3+ goals

15%

Madrid 2021 FP 1+ goals

68%

Madrid 2021 FP 2+ goals

31%

Madrid 2021 FP 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Trival Valderas (draw refunded)

57%

Madrid 2021 FP (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Trival Valderas at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.99 · 114 matches

Madrid 2021 FP away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.34 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Trival Valderas attack 1.33 + Madrid 2021 FP defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.33

Madrid 2021 FP attack 1.26 + Trival Valderas defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Trival Valderas scores more

41%

level

27%

Madrid 2021 FP scores more

32%

Trival Valderas at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Trival Valderas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Trival Valderas vs Madrid 2021 FP

Madrid 2021 FP beat Trival Valderas 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on February 20, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio La Canaleja in Alcorcón.

Trival Valderas vs Madrid 2021 FP — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Trival Valderas vs Madrid 2021 FP