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Trival Valderas vs Las Rozas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Trival Valderas
Trival Valderas
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Las Rozas
Las Rozas
3/16/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 26Estadio La Canaleja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Trival Valderas39%
×Draw28%
Las Rozas33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trival Valderas
1.24
Las Rozas
1.11

Trival Valderas creates 12% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 88 away

creates per match

Trival Valderas
1.33
Las Rozas
1.23

allows per match

Trival Valderas
0.99
Las Rozas
1.15

finishing

Trival Valderas+0.00on par
Las Rozas+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trival Valderas ↓

Las Rozas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Trival Valderas or draw
67%
Trival Valderas or Las Rozas
72%
Draw or Las Rozas
61%

Winning margin

Trival Valderas wins by 2+
17%
Las Rozas wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Trival Valderas 1+ goals
71%
Trival Valderas 2+ goals
35%
Trival Valderas 3+ goals
13%
Las Rozas 1+ goals
67%
Las Rozas 2+ goals
30%
Las Rozas 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Trival Valderas (draw refunded)
54%
Las Rozas (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trival Valderas at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.99 · 114 matches

Las Rozas away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.15 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trival Valderas attack 1.33 + Las Rozas defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.24

Las Rozas attack 1.23 + Trival Valderas defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Trival Valderas scores more
39%
level
28%
Las Rozas scores more
33%

Trival Valderas at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Trival Valderas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Trival Valderas 1–1 Las Rozas

Trival Valderas and Las Rozas drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on March 16, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio La Canaleja in Alcorcón.