Trival Valderas 0–1 Las Rozas: Result & Stats

Trival Valderas

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Las Rozas

Carbonell 30'

9/19/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 4Estadio La Canaleja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Trival Valderas39%

×Draw28%

Las Rozas33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trival ValderasExpected goals in this matchLas Rozas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.11

Trival Valderas

1.24

Las Rozas

1.11

Trival Valderas creates 12% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 88 away

1.33

creates per match

1.23

0.99

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Trival Valderas

1.33

Las Rozas

1.23

allows per match

Trival Valderas

0.99

Las Rozas

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trival Valderas+0.00on par

Las Rozas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trival Valderas ↓

Las Rozas →

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Trival Valderas or draw

67%

Trival Valderas or Las Rozas

72%

Draw or Las Rozas

61%

Winning margin

Trival Valderas wins by 2+

17%

Las Rozas wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Trival Valderas 1+ goals

71%

Trival Valderas 2+ goals

35%

Trival Valderas 3+ goals

13%

Las Rozas 1+ goals

67%

Las Rozas 2+ goals

30%

Las Rozas 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Trival Valderas (draw refunded)

54%

Las Rozas (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Trival Valderas at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.99 · 114 matches

Las Rozas away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.15 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Trival Valderas attack 1.33 + Las Rozas defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.24

Las Rozas attack 1.23 + Trival Valderas defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Trival Valderas scores more

39%

level

28%

Las Rozas scores more

33%

Trival Valderas at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Trival Valderas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

Carbonell

46'

Dani Durán← Richi Aztiria

46'

S. Palacios← Marco Balsera

58'

Miguel Saza← Esparza

68'

Roberto Ávila← Kity

73'

Jaime Guillén← David Diez

80'

Noé López← Koke

80'

Adrián Almendros← Miguelon

84'

Iñaki← Alberto Cuéllar

Trival

Las

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: David Galan

46'▲Dani Durán←▼Richi Aztiria

58'▲Miguel Saza←▼Esparza

68'▲Roberto Ávila←▼Kity

80'▲Noé López←▼Koke

80'▲Adrián Almendros←▼Miguelon

Trival Valderas substitutes

DuránSazaÁvilaLópezAlmendros

Manager: Carlos

46'▲S. Palacios←▼Marco Balsera

73'▲Jaime Guillén←▼David Diez

84'▲Iñaki←▼Alberto Cuéllar

Las Rozas substitutes

PalaciosGuillénIñaki

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Trival Valderas 0–1 Las Rozas

Las Rozas beat Trival Valderas 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on September 19, 2021.

Goals: Carbonell (30').

The match was played at Estadio La Canaleja in Alcorcón.

Trival Valderas vs Las Rozas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Trival Valderas 0–1 Las Rozas