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Trival Valderas vs Getafe II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Trival Valderas
Trival Valderas
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Getafe II
Getafe II
10/17/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 8Estadio La Canaleja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Trival Valderas37%
×Draw28%
Getafe II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trival Valderas
1.17
Getafe II
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 114 home / 35 away

creates per match

Trival Valderas
1.33
Getafe II
1.29

allows per match

Trival Valderas
0.99
Getafe II
1.00

finishing

Trival Valderas+0.00on par
Getafe II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trival Valderas ↓

Getafe II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Trival Valderas or draw
65%
Trival Valderas or Getafe II
72%
Draw or Getafe II
63%

Winning margin

Trival Valderas wins by 2+
15%
Getafe II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Trival Valderas 1+ goals
69%
Trival Valderas 2+ goals
33%
Trival Valderas 3+ goals
11%
Getafe II 1+ goals
68%
Getafe II 2+ goals
32%
Getafe II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Trival Valderas (draw refunded)
51%
Getafe II (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trival Valderas at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.99 · 114 matches

Getafe II away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.00 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trival Valderas attack 1.33 + Getafe II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Getafe II attack 1.29 + Trival Valderas defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Trival Valderas scores more
37%
level
28%
Getafe II scores more
35%

Trival Valderas at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Trival Valderas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Trival Valderas vs Getafe II

Trival Valderas beat Getafe II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on October 17, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio La Canaleja in Alcorcón.