Trival Valderas 1–1 Complutense: Result & Stats

Trival Valderas

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Complutense

12/8/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 17Estadio La Canaleja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Trival Valderas52%

×Draw28%

Complutense20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trival ValderasExpected goals in this matchComplutense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.73

Trival Valderas

1.38

Complutense

0.73

Trival Valderas creates 89% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 36 away

1.33

creates per match

0.47

0.99

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Trival Valderas

1.33

Complutense

0.47

allows per match

Trival Valderas

0.99

Complutense

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trival Valderas+0.00on par

Complutense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trival Valderas ↓

Complutense →

0–012%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Trival Valderas or draw

80%

Trival Valderas or Complutense

72%

Draw or Complutense

48%

Winning margin

Trival Valderas wins by 2+

26%

Complutense wins by 2+

Team goals

Trival Valderas 1+ goals

75%

Trival Valderas 2+ goals

40%

Trival Valderas 3+ goals

16%

Complutense 1+ goals

52%

Complutense 2+ goals

17%

Complutense 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Trival Valderas (draw refunded)

73%

Complutense (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Trival Valderas at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.99 · 114 matches

Complutense away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.42 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Trival Valderas attack 1.33 + Complutense defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.38

Complutense attack 0.47 + Trival Valderas defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Trival Valderas scores more

52%

level

28%

Complutense scores more

20%

Trival Valderas at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Trival Valderas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff