Trival Valderas 1–1 Atlético Pinto: Result & Stats

Trival Valderas

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Atlético Pinto

10/18/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 1Estadio La Canaleja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Trival Valderas48%

×Draw26%

Atlético Pinto26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trival ValderasExpected goals in this matchAtlético Pinto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.04

Trival Valderas

1.51

Atlético Pinto

1.04

Trival Valderas creates 45% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 29 away

1.33

creates per match

1.10

0.99

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Trival Valderas

1.33

Atlético Pinto

1.10

allows per match

Trival Valderas

0.99

Atlético Pinto

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trival Valderas+0.00on par

Atlético Pinto+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trival Valderas ↓

Atlético Pinto →

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Trival Valderas or draw

74%

Trival Valderas or Atlético Pinto

74%

Draw or Atlético Pinto

52%

Winning margin

Trival Valderas wins by 2+

24%

Atlético Pinto wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Trival Valderas 1+ goals

78%

Trival Valderas 2+ goals

44%

Trival Valderas 3+ goals

19%

Atlético Pinto 1+ goals

65%

Atlético Pinto 2+ goals

28%

Atlético Pinto 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Trival Valderas (draw refunded)

65%

Atlético Pinto (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Trival Valderas at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.99 · 114 matches

Atlético Pinto away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.69 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Trival Valderas attack 1.33 + Atlético Pinto defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.51

Atlético Pinto attack 1.10 + Trival Valderas defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Trival Valderas scores more

48%

level

26%

Atlético Pinto scores more

26%

Trival Valderas at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Trival Valderas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Trival Valderas vs Atlético Pinto

Trival Valderas and Atlético Pinto drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on October 18, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio La Canaleja in Alcorcón.

Trival Valderas vs Atlético Pinto — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Trival Valderas vs Atlético Pinto