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Tristan Suarez vs Sacachispas — Primera B Metropolitana 2026

Tristan Suarez
Tristan Suarez
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Sacachispas
Sacachispas
F. Quiroga 83'
L. López 40'
J. Martín 15'
10/19/2018Primera B MetropolitanaPrimera B Metropolitana · Round 12Estadio 20 de Octubre (Ezeiza, Provincia de Buenos Aires)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Tristan Suarez48%
×Draw30%
Sacachispas22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tristan Suarez
1.21
Sacachispas
0.72

Tristan Suarez creates 68% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 109 away

creates per match

Tristan Suarez
1.22
Sacachispas
0.63

allows per match

Tristan Suarez
0.82
Sacachispas
1.20

finishing

Tristan Suarez+0.00on par
Sacachispas+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tristan Suarez ↓

Sacachispas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Tristan Suarez or draw
78%
Tristan Suarez or Sacachispas
70%
Draw or Sacachispas
52%

Winning margin

Tristan Suarez wins by 2+
21%
Sacachispas wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Tristan Suarez 1+ goals
70%
Tristan Suarez 2+ goals
34%
Tristan Suarez 3+ goals
12%
Sacachispas 1+ goals
51%
Sacachispas 2+ goals
16%
Sacachispas 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Tristan Suarez (draw refunded)
68%
Sacachispas (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tristan Suarez at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.82 · 55 matches

Sacachispas away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.20 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tristan Suarez attack 1.22 + Sacachispas defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.21

Sacachispas attack 0.63 + Tristan Suarez defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Tristan Suarez scores more
48%
level
30%
Sacachispas scores more
22%

Tristan Suarez at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Tristan Suarez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
J. Martín
40'
L. López
83'
F. Quiroga

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B Metropolitana: Tristan Suarez 3–0 Sacachispas

Tristan Suarez beat Sacachispas 3-0 in Primera B Metropolitana on October 19, 2018.

Goals: J. Martín (15'), L. López (40'), F. Quiroga (83').

The match was played at Estadio 20 de Octubre (Ezeiza, Provincia de Buenos Aires).