Tripoli SC 1–2 Shabab El Bourj: Result & Stats

Tripoli SC

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Shabab El Bourj

3/31/2021

Premier League · Relegation Round - 2Fouad Shehab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Tripoli SC44%

×Draw26%

Shabab El Bourj31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tripoli SCExpected goals in this matchShabab El Bourj

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.21

Tripoli SC

1.49

Shabab El Bourj

1.21

Tripoli SC creates 23% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 15 away

0.85

creates per match

1.13

1.29

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Tripoli SC

0.85

Shabab El Bourj

1.13

allows per match

Tripoli SC

1.29

Shabab El Bourj

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tripoli SC+0.00on par

Shabab El Bourj+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tripoli SC ↓

Shabab El Bourj →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Tripoli SC or draw

69%

Tripoli SC or Shabab El Bourj

74%

Draw or Shabab El Bourj

56%

Winning margin

Tripoli SC wins by 2+

21%

Shabab El Bourj wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Tripoli SC 1+ goals

77%

Tripoli SC 2+ goals

44%

Tripoli SC 3+ goals

19%

Shabab El Bourj 1+ goals

70%

Shabab El Bourj 2+ goals

34%

Shabab El Bourj 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Tripoli SC (draw refunded)

59%

Shabab El Bourj (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tripoli SC at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.29 · 48 matches

Shabab El Bourj away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tripoli SC attack 0.85 + Shabab El Bourj defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.49

Shabab El Bourj attack 1.13 + Tripoli SC defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Tripoli SC scores more

44%

level

26%

Shabab El Bourj scores more

31%

Tripoli SC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Tripoli SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff