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Tripoli SC vs Shabab Al Sahel — Premier League 2019

Tripoli SC
Tripoli SC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shabab Al Sahel
Shabab Al Sahel
8/13/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2Salam Zgharta Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Tripoli SC31%
×Draw28%
Shabab Al Sahel41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tripoli SC
1.04
Shabab Al Sahel
1.24

Shabab Al Sahel creates 19% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 64 away

creates per match

Tripoli SC
0.85
Shabab Al Sahel
1.19

allows per match

Tripoli SC
1.29
Shabab Al Sahel
1.23

finishing

Tripoli SC+0.00on par
Shabab Al Sahel+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tripoli SC ↓

Shabab Al Sahel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Tripoli SC or draw
59%
Tripoli SC or Shabab Al Sahel
72%
Draw or Shabab Al Sahel
69%

Winning margin

Tripoli SC wins by 2+
12%
Shabab Al Sahel wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Tripoli SC 1+ goals
65%
Tripoli SC 2+ goals
28%
Tripoli SC 3+ goals
9%
Shabab Al Sahel 1+ goals
71%
Shabab Al Sahel 2+ goals
35%
Shabab Al Sahel 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Tripoli SC (draw refunded)
43%
Shabab Al Sahel (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tripoli SC at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.29 · 48 matches

Shabab Al Sahel away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.23 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tripoli SC attack 0.85 + Shabab Al Sahel defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.04

Shabab Al Sahel attack 1.19 + Tripoli SC defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tripoli SC scores more
31%
level
28%
Shabab Al Sahel scores more
41%

Shabab Al Sahel at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Shabab Al Sahel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tripoli SC vs Shabab Al Sahel

Tripoli SC and Shabab Al Sahel drew 0-0 in Premier League on August 13, 2023.

The match was played at Salam Zgharta Club Stadium in Zgharta.