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Tripoli SC vs Salam Zgharta — Premier League 2019

Tripoli SC
Tripoli SC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Salam Zgharta
Salam Zgharta
1/15/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Relegation Round - 2Tripoli Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Tripoli SC53%
×Draw26%
Salam Zgharta21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tripoli SC
1.55
Salam Zgharta
0.88

Tripoli SC creates 76% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 19 away

creates per match

Tripoli SC
0.85
Salam Zgharta
0.47

allows per match

Tripoli SC
1.29
Salam Zgharta
2.26

finishing

Tripoli SC+0.00on par
Salam Zgharta+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tripoli SC ↓

Salam Zgharta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tripoli SC or draw
79%
Tripoli SC or Salam Zgharta
74%
Draw or Salam Zgharta
47%

Winning margin

Tripoli SC wins by 2+
28%
Salam Zgharta wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Tripoli SC 1+ goals
79%
Tripoli SC 2+ goals
46%
Tripoli SC 3+ goals
20%
Salam Zgharta 1+ goals
59%
Salam Zgharta 2+ goals
22%
Salam Zgharta 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Tripoli SC (draw refunded)
71%
Salam Zgharta (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tripoli SC at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.29 · 48 matches

Salam Zgharta away — creates 0.47, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tripoli SC attack 0.85 + Salam Zgharta defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.55

Salam Zgharta attack 0.47 + Tripoli SC defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Tripoli SC scores more
53%
level
26%
Salam Zgharta scores more
21%

Tripoli SC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Tripoli SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tripoli SC vs Salam Zgharta

Tripoli SC beat Salam Zgharta 1-0 in Premier League on January 15, 2023.

The match was played at Tripoli Municipal Stadium in Tarabulus.