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Tripoli SC vs Al Ansar — Premier League 2019

Tripoli SC
Tripoli SC
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 3
Al Ansar
Al Ansar
9/18/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Tripoli Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Tripoli SC16%
×Draw23%
Al Ansar61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tripoli SC
0.76
Al Ansar
1.76

Al Ansar creates 132% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 60 away

creates per match

Tripoli SC
0.85
Al Ansar
2.23

allows per match

Tripoli SC
1.29
Al Ansar
0.67

finishing

Tripoli SC+0.00on par
Al Ansar+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tripoli SC ↓

Al Ansar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–114%
0–212%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tripoli SC or draw
39%
Tripoli SC or Al Ansar
77%
Draw or Al Ansar
84%

Winning margin

Tripoli SC wins by 2+
5%
Al Ansar wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Tripoli SC 1+ goals
53%
Tripoli SC 2+ goals
18%
Tripoli SC 3+ goals
4%
Al Ansar 1+ goals
83%
Al Ansar 2+ goals
52%
Al Ansar 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Tripoli SC (draw refunded)
21%
Al Ansar (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tripoli SC at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.29 · 48 matches

Al Ansar away — creates 2.23, concedes 0.67 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tripoli SC attack 0.85 + Al Ansar defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.76

Al Ansar attack 2.23 + Tripoli SC defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Tripoli SC scores more
16%
level
23%
Al Ansar scores more
61%

Al Ansar at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Al Ansar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Tripoli SC 0–6 Al Ansar

Al Ansar beat Tripoli SC 6-0 in Premier League on September 18, 2022.

The match was played at Tripoli Municipal Stadium in Tarabulus.